College football Week 7 oddly specific predictions: Texas, Ohio State survive upset threats (2024)

Fraud alert: It’s me.

My mediocre run over the past two weeks continued with a season-worst 4-5 performance straight up forecasting games. And, yes, I once again missed all three of our stat stuffers and the upset special.

So, now I’m 36-18 picking outright winners and 3-3 on my upset of the week for the season.

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We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks. There are three Top 25 matchups this week and plenty of other intriguing matchups.

Most passing yards

We’ve had 15 FBS quarterbacks throw for 400 yards in a game this season, and only two have done it more than once: Miami’s Cam Ward and North Texas’ Chandler Morris. Ward and Miami have a bye, and Morris is playing at FAU, which hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer yet this season. So, I’m riding with Pittsburgh redshirt freshman Eli Holstein this week.

The former Alabama five-star recruit ranks eighth in passing yards per game (313.4) and the No. 22 Panthers face the same Cal pass defense that just surrendered over 400 yards through the air to Ward. Pitt is a 3.5-point favorite at home against the Bears and has thrown for 300-plus yards in four of the Panthers’ five games. He goes for 400-plus Saturday with four scores and leads Pitt to its first 6-0 mark since 1982.

Most rushing yards

Who does Ashton Jeanty play this week? Yes. I’m getting in the layup line. Jeanty is averaging 206 yards per game — 52 more a contest than the nation’s second-leading rusher, Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson.

No. 17 Boise State is a 21-point favorite at Hawaii this week, but the Rainbows aren’t necessarily a bad team despite their 2-3 record. They’ve suffered two three-point losses to UCLA and at San Diego State. I say Jeanty turns in his third 200-yard rushing performance of the season and scores three times to lead the Broncos to a 20-point win on the island.

Most receiving yards

Only eight receivers have hit 200-plus yards in a game so far this season. There are also only 10 FBS receivers averaging more than 100 yards receiving a game. I mention all this simply to say it’s really hard to nail this category.

This week, I’m riding with the only player to have a 300-yard receiving game this season: Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan. The Wildcats are 5.5-point underdogs at No. 14 BYU, which allowed 300-plus passing yards and three touchdown passes On Sept. 28 in a win at Baylor. It was the first time all season the Cougars allowed an opponent to throw for more than 144 yards or complete a touchdown pass in a game. Noah Fifita is going to throw it to McMillan (10-plus catches, 200-plus yards) plenty this game, and the Wildcats are going to put a scare into BYU at home before the Cougars escape on a late field goal.

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Five big games

No. 1 Texas (-14.5) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma

Quinn Ewers returns from an oblique injury, but Arch Manning proved he’s more than capable of filling his shoes if needed. The Sooners have won five of the past six meetings with Texas, 11 of the past 15 and 17 of 25. The problem for OU? The offense has been trash, ranking 124th in yards per play (4.71) and 130th in third-down conversions (26.87 percent).

Alright alright. It’s Texas vs Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry! 😂😂

Brought to you by @renasant pic.twitter.com/IDGkEjUsGD

— Josh Mancuso (@joshmancuso) October 8, 2024

Sackmaster R Mason Thomas and a solid Oklahoma defense have forced 13 turnovers to help cover up some of those deficiencies. Still, Michael Hawkins Jr. will become the first true freshman in school history to start in the Red River rivalry, and Texas’ defense is good. I’ll take the Sooners to cover the spread, but the Longhorns to win by two scores with their front sacking Hawkins four times.

No. 2 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 3 Oregon

Our second top-five matchup of the season is actually the first such showdown in Autzen Stadium history. Which team is best prepared? According to ESPN analytics, Oregon faced the 94th toughest schedule and Ohio State the 109th toughest. Here’s what I know: Jeanty ran for 192 yards and three touchdowns and nearly led Boise State to a win in Eugene last month, and Ohio State has pretty talented backs, too, in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.

Quinshon Judkins : 13 carries for 78 yards on 6 yards per carry
TreVeyon Henderson : 11 carries for 61 yards on 5.5 yards per carry pic.twitter.com/FOMlizIVoh

— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) October 6, 2024

Oregon, meanwhile, is in the red in turnover margin (-1), and the offense hasn’t been nearly as explosive as in years past. Although I picked the Ducks to win this game in the preseason, I’m going with the Buckeyes now because of Jim Knowles’ elite defense. Judkins runs for 90-plus yards, scores late and Ohio State escapes by a field goal.

No. 9 Ole Miss (-3.5) at No. 13 LSU

The Rebels rebounded from their loss to Kentucky by pounding South Carolina last week, and LSU has rallied from its season-opening loss to USC with four straight wins. Both teams can score and have very good quarterbacks. The weaknesses: LSU’s defense is far too leaky, and Ole Miss’ offensive line gives up too many sacks and pressures.

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This game comes down to pressure and which quarterback feels it more. Blake Baker is going to dial it up for the Tigers. I don’t bet against LSU either in these types of games. Give me the Tigers (four-plus sacks) in a Saturday night thriller won on a late Mason Taylor touchdown catch.

No. 4 Penn State (-5.5) at USC

The last time USC — losers of two of its last three — hosted a top-five opponent as an unranked team in 2015, it beat Utah in the Coliseum. A key question: Can USC slow Penn State’s physical rushing attack? Michigan and Minnesota ran for 483 yards and six touchdowns in wins over the Trojans. Another question: Can USC protect Miller Moss against Abdul Carter and a solid Nittany Lions front? The answer to both is likely no.

Moss (220-plus passing yards, 1 TD) and Woody Marks (70-plus rushing yards, 1 TD) will keep USC within striking distance at home, but I’ll ride with Penn State’s defense and a healthy Nick Singleton (70-plus rushing yards, 1 TD) to be the difference in a tight four-point victory.

No. 18 Kansas State (-4) at Colorado

The key to success for Colorado in three consecutive wins over Colorado State, Baylor and UCF has been the turnover margin (+7). The Buffaloes did a fine job short-circuiting a potent Knights rushing attack in an impressive road win and will face another good one led by Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens.

Another question here is can Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter continue to put up points without much help from the Buffs’ 126th-ranked running game (80.6 yards per game). K-State gave up yards through the air to Tulane (342), Arizona (268) and Oklahoma State (364), but won the turnover margin in all three of those games. Avery Johnson protects the football versus Colorado, and the Wildcats run (200-plus rushing yards) to a seven-point road victory.

Upset alert

No. 11 Iowa State (-3) at West Virginia

The Cyclones are on the verge of starting 6-0 for the first time since 1938 and have one of the best defenses in the country, allowing only 4.41 yards per play (11th) and holding opponents to 10 points per game (6th). The Mountaineers, though, are battle tested, having lost to two ranked opponents in Penn State and Pittsburgh and with wins against Oklahoma State and Kansas, two preseason Big 12 favorites.

Going with a gut feeling here and nothing else. West Virginia puts an end to its seven-game losing skid to AP ranked opponents behind a big night from CJ Donaldson (100-plus rushing yards, 2 TDs) and because the turnover margin (Iowa State is plus-7; West Virginia is minus-3) flips for both teams.

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Week 6 report card

• Somebody who is really good at this would’ve seen the upsets of No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Tennessee coming.

My upset of the week last week — Michigan winning at Washington — looked good through three quarters. But Kalel Mullings finished nowhere near 100 yards on the ground (49), and Washington scored 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 27-17. I was also wrong about Nico Iamaleava leading the Volunteers to a 10-point win at Arkansas.

• I probably would have lost my Oddly Specific column writing license if Ward didn’t rally Miami from a 25-point deficit to victory at Cal. I said Ward would throw for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns and lead the Hurricanes to another thrilling come-from-behind win. He threw for an FBS-leading 437 yards and accounted for three total touchdowns in Miami’s 39-38 victory.

Syracuse’s Kyle McCord threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns — 35 yards shy of what I said he would do against UNLV — and finished seventh among all FBS passers last week in yardage. His team also rallied to pull out the win. I picked the Rebels to win the game and cover the six-point spread despite McCord’s efforts.

• I went with UCF’s RJ Harvey to lead all FBS rushers last week and explode (190 yards, 2 TDs) against what had been a porous Florida run defense. Harvey ran for 75 yards and a touchdown, finishing 56th for the week. Florida, though, did pull the upset as I said it would with Graham Mertz enjoying a good day.

• I picked the wrong week to ride with Oklahoma State’s De’Zhaun Stribling to lead all FBS receivers in yards. He only had two catches for 54 yards and a touchdown on a day West Virginia made me look silly for picking Oklahoma State to escape with a four-point win at home. Note to self: Stay away from Mike Gundy’s team.

• One of my rare victories last week was going with Texas A&M to cover the 2.5-point spread at home against No. 9 Missouri. While the Tigers’ Nate Noel (10 carries, 30 yards) came from nowhere for near 100 yards, I did correctly forecast Le’Veon Moss (138 yards, 3 TDs) and Nic Scourton (1.5 sacks) having good days for the Aggies.

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• I was right about Louisville doing a better job protecting the ball at home against SMU (one turnover) than at Notre Dame (three turnovers), but the Mustangs and Kevin Jennings outshined Tyler Shough and pulled the road upset 34-27. I said Louisville would win by a field goal.

• I gave South Carolina too much credit and said it would make a game of it with Ole Miss. I was wrong. Former Gamecocks WR Antwane Wells Jr. (3 catches, 97 yards) did have a good day, but the Rebels didn’t need him to score a late touchdown to win as I said they would and easily covered the 9.5-point spread.

(Photo of Texas’ Anthony Hill Jr. (No. 0): Tim Warner / Getty Images)

College football Week 7 oddly specific predictions: Texas, Ohio State survive upset threats (1)College football Week 7 oddly specific predictions: Texas, Ohio State survive upset threats (2)

Manny Navarro has been with The Athletic since September 2018 and covers Miami and recruiting. He's also the host of the "Wide Right" podcast. Manny's career started at The Miami Herald in October 1995 when he was a high school senior. He covered the Hurricanes, Heat, Marlins and high school sports for 23 years at the paper. He makes occasional appearances on WSVN's Sports Xtra on Sunday nights and is on the "Big O Show" with Orlando Alzugaray at 12:30 p.m. Tuesdays and Fridays. Follow Manny on Twitter @Manny_Navarro

College football Week 7 oddly specific predictions: Texas, Ohio State survive upset threats (2024)

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